The AFCON 2026 group draw on Sunday produced one of the more cinematic outcomes in the competition's history. Group D: Morocco, Senegal, Cameroon, Egypt. The four most-titled nations of the last decade in a single group, only two of which advance.

How this happened

The seedings worked exactly as they were designed to and the result is what you get when the seedings work as designed. Morocco entered as Pot 1 favourites. Senegal — the holders going back to 2022 — were Pot 2. Cameroon, slipped in the rankings during a turbulent qualifying campaign, fell to Pot 3. Egypt, who haven't lifted the trophy since 2010 but have somehow always been there, were Pot 4.

The probability of all four of these names landing together was, before the draw, about 3.4%. So: not impossible, just rare enough that you write about it.

Who survives

Morocco are the favourites and have been since their 2022 World Cup run. Walid Regragui has built the most settled side at the tournament — a 4-3-3 with Hakimi as the engine, Ounahi controlling tempo, Ziyech still capable of being a menace at 33. They top the group barring catastrophe.

The second qualification spot is the question. Senegal lost Mané to a late injury concern and have been unconvincing in their three friendlies since November. Cameroon look better than the rankings suggest under their new coach. Egypt have Salah and a midfield that wasn't there two years ago.

Match by match

  • Morocco vs Senegal (matchday 1): the matchday-1 'final'. Whoever wins essentially clinches a top-two slot.
  • Cameroon vs Egypt (matchday 1): Salah vs the new generation. Egypt narrowly favoured.
  • Senegal vs Cameroon (matchday 2): if Senegal lose this, they're going home.
  • Morocco vs Egypt (matchday 2): Morocco almost qualified, Egypt fighting.
  • Cameroon vs Morocco (matchday 3): could be a dead rubber for Morocco. Probably won't be.
  • Senegal vs Egypt (matchday 3): if both still alive, the most-watched African match of the year.

Where the underdogs sit

Group A's draw was kinder to Ghana. Group B has Algeria and Côte d'Ivoire which is a difficult pairing but not the disaster D is. Group C has hosts Nigeria, who are favoured and rightly. The narrative going into the tournament will be Group D. The team that wins the tournament probably comes out of Group A or C.

That's history's pattern. The group of death sends a finalist home in the round of 16. The trophy ends up somewhere quieter. Bet accordingly.